Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-25 1.103447 1.166032 1.230947 1.303441 1.382304 1.465678 1.560722
2026-02-01 0.990567 1.077276 1.171084 1.280633 1.405716 1.544877 1.712526
2026-02-08 0.910145 1.008600 1.118126 1.249960 1.405628 1.585224 1.810528
2026-02-15 0.859644 0.967153 1.089489 1.240460 1.423825 1.642068 1.925751
2026-02-22 0.824669 0.939993 1.073826 1.242659 1.452962 1.710470 2.056436
2026-03-01 0.784729 0.903912 1.044441 1.224948 1.454556 1.742510 2.140516
2026-03-08 0.743348 0.863614 1.007281 1.194592 1.437075 1.747410 2.186964
2026-03-15 0.716009 0.838927 0.987676 1.184532 1.443942 1.782912 2.275378
2026-03-22 0.703703 0.832007 0.989445 1.201207 1.485742 1.866214 2.435038
2026-03-29 0.685643 0.816870 0.979806 1.202018 1.505662 1.919959 2.555331
2026-04-05 0.673841 0.809031 0.978905 1.213889 1.540613 1.995904 2.713280
2026-04-12 0.654107 0.790135 0.962688 1.204092 1.544472 2.027005 2.804468
2026-04-19 0.644049 0.783973 0.963602 1.218552 1.584553 2.115111 2.995498
2026-04-26 0.621046 0.760044 0.939992 1.198013 1.573211 2.125937 3.063127
2026-05-03 0.596830 0.733687 0.912114 1.170158 1.549491 2.116051 3.094777
2026-05-10 0.581133 0.718170 0.898321 1.161524 1.553506 2.148749 3.200694
2026-05-17 0.570181 0.708627 0.892261 1.163523 1.573265 2.206934 3.355572
2026-05-24 0.553622 0.690947 0.874311 1.147420 1.564393 2.218284 3.427055
2026-05-31 0.534029 0.668593 0.849167 1.119799 1.536347 2.196533 3.435490
2026-06-07 0.521554 0.655681 0.836859 1.110640 1.536602 2.221373 3.533004
2026-06-14 0.517616 0.654412 0.840862 1.125820 1.575841 2.313812 3.768913
2026-06-21 0.509305 0.646785 0.835509 1.126559 1.591752 2.367020 3.932642
2026-06-28 0.504484 0.643886 0.836794 1.137361 1.624398 2.451328 4.168668